The election for the 90-member Haryana Assembly is scheduled for October 5. The ruling BJP, which has held power for ten years, faces challenges to secure a third term due to growing anti-incumbency sentiment and a poor showing in the recent general election.
Haryana is home to 36 prominent bridaris (communities), with Jats being the largest demographic, primarily residing in Rohtak, Bhiwani, Hisar, Karnal, Gurgaon, and surrounding areas. Additionally, a significant Punjabi biradari, which migrated from Pakistan during partition, adds to the state’s diversity. Over five percent of the population identifies as Sikh.
As usual, all parties are relying heavily on caste calculations. Although Jats, who represent over 22% of the state’s population, and Scheduled Castes (SCs), who account for about 20%, may lean towards Congress, this alignment does not seem to favor the BJP. Before 2014, the BJP’s influence in Haryana was minimal, but it won 47 of the 90 assembly seats in that year’s election, marking its first significant victory due to a communal wave from the Lok Sabha elections. In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP managed to retain power with only 40 seats, relying on the support of the JJP, which won 10 seats, while a simple majority requires 46.
In the 2019 general elections, the BJP won all ten parliamentary seats in the state, but in the 2024 elections, it lost five seats to Congress, indicating a possible resurgence for the opposition party. Current ground reports predict Congress may win between 50 to 65 assembly seats, fueled by internal dissent within the BJP over ticket distribution. Unemployment has emerged as a prominent issue, with Congress accusing the BJP government of making “Haryana number one in unemployment in the country.” Other critical issues include rising incidents of mob lynching.
Muslims, who constitute around 8 to 10% of the total population, are primarily concentrated in the Nuh district of the Mewat region. Their voting power is crucial in at least 15 assembly seats, including Nuh, Ferozpur Jhirka, and Punhana, while areas such as Sohna, Hatin, Hodal, and Palwal also have significant Muslim voter presence. In the 2009 assembly elections, five Muslim candidates were elected to the state legislature, showcasing a history of representation that is currently threatened.
Muslims in Haryana are often cited as the most backward group, lagging behind on various social indicators. Since the BJP’s ascent to power, concerns for security have intensified among the Muslim community. The three Muslim MLAs from the Meo-dominated Nuh district Aftab Ahmed, Mamman Khan, and Muhammad Ilyas have been fielded again by Congress. In contrast, the BJP has introduced new candidates, including Sanjay Singh, the minister of state for the environment, and Aizaz Khan, while Naseem Ahmed is contesting once more after being defeated by Mamman Khan in 2019 by a margin of over 36,000 votes. The AAP has introduced Rabia Kidwai as its first female candidate from Nuh; she is the granddaughter of Haryana’s 13th governor, Akhlaq-Ur-Rehman Kidwai.
Security is a significant concern in Nuh, where the BJP’s attempts to polarize religious sentiments have intensified over the past decade. There have been multiple instances of lynching of Muslim men by cow protection groups during the BJP’s governance, contributing to communal unrest in July that resulted in the deaths of at least seven people.
One of Haryana’s most impoverished regions, Nuh experienced communal violence in September last year during the Brij Mandal Jalabhishek Yatra organized by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. Despite being adjacent to Gurugram, Haryana’s financial center, Nuh lacks essential services, including adequate healthcare, education infrastructure, and access to clean drinking water.
In April 2018, Niti Aayog designated Nuh, formerly known as Mewat, as the most backward district in India, situated in the National Capital Region. Both Congress and BJP-led governments have allocated significant funds for welfare programs aimed at “uplifting” the district, yet the effectiveness of these expenditures remains unclear. Nuh scored the lowest in the country, at 26%, among 101 districts evaluated on 49 development indicators, including health, education, agriculture, financial inclusion, skill development, and basic infrastructure.
The area has also witnessed incidents of cow vigilantism over the past decade and continues to face critical challenges, such as the need for a university, railway connectivity, and the expansion of the Gurugram-Alwar highway through Nuh. Despite its location in one of the most prosperous states in the country, Nuh remains underdeveloped.
Activist-lawyer Mohammad Ramzan Chaudhri expressed concerns over the successive government’s neglect of this region, which he describes as an “oasis of backwardness.” He stated, “Right now, security is the foremost and overriding concern of the people in the region.”
Issues such as communal riots, mob lynching incidents, fake encounters, and arbitrary arrests have become distressingly common, according to Chaudhri.
Water scarcity is also a significant problem; the region relies heavily on monsoon rains. A 2015 Niti Aayog survey revealed that only 23% of homes have a water supply facility, far below the national average of 47%. Many residents are forced to buy water from tankers, incurring significant expenses. There has long been a demand for the construction of a canal that could supply water from the neighboring Mahendragarh district, yet no government has fulfilled this request.
The district also struggles with inadequate educational facilities. Activist Deen Mohammad Mamlika noted that many village schools are staffed by just one teacher. For instance, Otha village has only one high school with eight teachers, half of whom are guest teachers. He also pointed out that the quality of the midday meals provided to students is very low.
Residents of Nuh have voiced their frustration, acknowledging that neither the BJP nor the Congress has made meaningful contributions to the district’s development over the years. Since the BJP came to power, many opposition parties have hesitated to nominate Muslim candidates, fearing that such decisions could further polarize the election. This reluctance has contributed to a decline in Muslim representation; in 2009, Muslim candidates won seats in Hathin, Jagadhri, and Taoru, but only three Muslims have received tickets from Congress, the main contender in this election.
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