The recent regime change in Syria has positioned Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as a key regional influencer, fulfilling his long-standing ambition of asserting Turkey’s leadership in the Muslim world. This moment comes after years of complex and shifting policies toward Syria, showcasing both Erdogan’s strategic acumen and the challenges ahead.
From Ally to Adversary to Opportunity
Initially, Erdogan fostered close ties with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, their relationship soured in 2011 when Assad violently suppressed an uprising, leading Erdogan to support opposition forces, including the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the controversial Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
In November 2024, Erdogan approved a limited operation in Aleppo to pressure Assad toward normalization. Unexpectedly, this operation led to Assad’s ousting, leaving Erdogan in a commanding position to shape post-Assad Syria.
Challenges in Post-Assad Syria
Despite this geopolitical success, Erdogan faces significant hurdles:
1. Problematic Allies:
• HTS, with links to al-Qaeda and a record of repression in Idlib, remains controversial despite its recent rhetoric of inclusivity.
• The SNA’s history of human rights violations against Kurds and minorities complicates Turkey’s moral standing.
2. Ideological Contradictions:
Erdogan’s vision of Turkey as a democratic state rooted in Muslim values contrasts with HTS’s history and ideological ambiguity, creating tensions in the proposed new order for Syria.
3. Eroding Influence:
While Erdogan’s leadership appeals to Arab audiences, Syria’s evolving dynamics suggest diminishing reliance on Turkish involvement, potentially weakening Ankara’s control over its allies and the region’s future.
Turkey’s Aspirations and Regional Realities
Erdogan’s desire to project Turkey as a leader of the Muslim world is driven by his unique position as a populist leader and critic of Western policies. However, his overestimation of Turkey’s ability to manage Arab societies highlighted by missteps in Syria underscores the limits of this ambition.
For now, Erdogan relishes this moment of influence, but sustaining it will require navigating the complexities of Syrian autonomy, HTS’s troubling history, and regional resistance to external dominance. His success depends on whether he can balance Turkey’s interests with the aspirations of a post-Assad Syria that increasingly seeks independence from foreign control.
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